Quarter End

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The quarter end is traditionally a time when the financial world reports their returns, makes forecasts for the next quarter, and of course the unspoken game of “marking”, which my colleagues will not find my brute honesty humorous, but it is true nonetheless. It is also the time for the government to make their forecasts Read more…

Primaries and the Fed

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This week should be pivotal for the markets. We have another “Super Tuesday” that could be the decider for both the GOP and Democrat primaries, which will certainly drive some volatility (depending on who slings ahead). Yet this is more of a long-term market driven story that ultimately plays out in November. What will drive Read more…

NIRP, really?

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NIRP, Really? What is NIRP What is NIRP, quite simply it is the unimaginable just a short time ago. It is when the central bank takes rates negative. It sounds absurd and it is. During the height of the crisis, back in 2009-2010, as the Fed was figuring out what to do, they considered taking Read more…

Europe offers breathing room?

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While I have been adamant that the Fed will NOT raise rates in December, one thing has changed my mind as it comes back to my CORE focus on the dollar and dis-inflationary pressure. We must remember at the end of the day it is the dollar and inflation/deflation that drives everything, even ultimately the Read more…

Easy Money

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While earnings have been significantly mixed; Walmart, IBM, Chipotle and others getting crushed and Google, Amazon, and others beating – we are seeing huge volatility. There is one common theme that is a little concern, is that the net forecasts and top-line revenue results are weak. Yet, the implied volatility is getting crushed and the Read more…

QE4 coming?

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Is QE4 coming? Of course that was just a headline to catch your attention. The Labor Report certainly was a bust and came in far lower than my expectations. However, it has certainly justified and offered an excuse for our “Data Dependent” Fed NOT to raise rates. Of course if you have been following the Read more…

Shoe Shine Boy?

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The market fell again and we are now in precarious levels. We are roughly back to the previous lows in which we bounced from, only to revisit them a few short weeks later. The pattern we are experiencing is frequently referred to as a “Dead Cat Bounce”, in which we sold off then bounced, only Read more…

Fed Contradiction

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The market remains under volatile conditions, as if the recent FOMC meeting created more ambiguity than certainty. The Fed did not raise rates, but maybe they will in October or December (the next FOMC) meetings. The market didn’t rally as many expected when the Fed didn’t hike rates and instead sold off again. Last night Read more…

Normalization

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The Fed Hike Rage Debate is becoming silly to the point of absurdity. This debate which is becoming heated is also driving volatility into the market. The sad reality is that it is no fault of those that are debating, the fault rests squarely at the feet of the Fed and their failure in leadership Read more…

Fed Obfuscation

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The market seems stuck at these levels, poised to make a move. The debate that swirls around is whether or not the Fed will hike rates. I find it a mute debate, as most of it is based on rhetoric and what they “should” do; there is little talk about the actual numbers, facts, and Read more…

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