Minsky’s Moment

Posted on: by .

The Economist in their last issue ran an excellent article about the “Minsky’s Moment”, the last time his name and theory were evoked by the Economist was in 2009 after the financial crisis. I can’t help wonder if the Economist’s timing is not fortuitous. April 2nd 2009 Economist “Minsky’s Moment” July 30th 2016 Economist “Minsky’s Read more…

Quarter End

Posted on: by .

The quarter end is traditionally a time when the financial world reports their returns, makes forecasts for the next quarter, and of course the unspoken game of “marking”, which my colleagues will not find my brute honesty humorous, but it is true nonetheless. It is also the time for the government to make their forecasts Read more…

Primaries and the Fed

Posted on: by .

This week should be pivotal for the markets. We have another “Super Tuesday” that could be the decider for both the GOP and Democrat primaries, which will certainly drive some volatility (depending on who slings ahead). Yet this is more of a long-term market driven story that ultimately plays out in November. What will drive Read more…

NIRP, really?

Posted on: by .

NIRP, Really? What is NIRP What is NIRP, quite simply it is the unimaginable just a short time ago. It is when the central bank takes rates negative. It sounds absurd and it is. During the height of the crisis, back in 2009-2010, as the Fed was figuring out what to do, they considered taking Read more…

1,000 Foot View

Posted on: by .

Is the world coming to an end? It would seem so as we watch the market take a nose dive, only to rebound in what seems nothing more than a “dead cat” bounce. So why all the turmoil, volatility, and radical markets? We can certainly try to point our finger at one thing or another Read more…

2016 Predictions

Posted on: by .

It is the end of 2015 and we have been in for a wild ride, driven by Fed interventionism and uncertainty. The Fed raised rates to the upper end of their 0 – .25 years long ZERO rate policy. However, the 25bps raise had little effect on bonds or the market in general, yet it Read more…

New Keynesians

Posted on: by .

Is the rally getting long in the tooth? The recent rally, much like the sell-off that preceded it were not based on economics, earnings, or even geo-political events – it fell squarely on the shoulders of the Fed’s interest rate decisions. New Keynesians? FOMC moves the Market The market sold off in August and then Read more…

Easy Money

Posted on: by .

While earnings have been significantly mixed; Walmart, IBM, Chipotle and others getting crushed and Google, Amazon, and others beating – we are seeing huge volatility. There is one common theme that is a little concern, is that the net forecasts and top-line revenue results are weak. Yet, the implied volatility is getting crushed and the Read more…

Shoe Shine Boy?

Posted on: by .

The market fell again and we are now in precarious levels. We are roughly back to the previous lows in which we bounced from, only to revisit them a few short weeks later. The pattern we are experiencing is frequently referred to as a “Dead Cat Bounce”, in which we sold off then bounced, only Read more…

    Older Posts >>