Uncertainty?

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I was speaking with a well-respected leader in the financial community discussing the market. She made an astute observation; “We can deal with bad news and we can deal with good news, what we can’t deal with is uncertainty!” She is absolutely correct. One can position their investments for both good and bad economic and Read more…

NIRP, really?

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NIRP, Really? What is NIRP What is NIRP, quite simply it is the unimaginable just a short time ago. It is when the central bank takes rates negative. It sounds absurd and it is. During the height of the crisis, back in 2009-2010, as the Fed was figuring out what to do, they considered taking Read more…

Not all is Rosy

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What we had hoped would not come to pass is now becoming reality. Perhaps it was hope rather than math, that drove optimistic perception. I have a saying, which I probably don’t repeat enough; “You can choose to ignore the math, but you can’t avoid it!” We tend to ignore real economic data, math and Read more…

1,000 Foot View

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Is the world coming to an end? It would seem so as we watch the market take a nose dive, only to rebound in what seems nothing more than a “dead cat” bounce. So why all the turmoil, volatility, and radical markets? We can certainly try to point our finger at one thing or another Read more…

2016 Predictions

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It is the end of 2015 and we have been in for a wild ride, driven by Fed interventionism and uncertainty. The Fed raised rates to the upper end of their 0 – .25 years long ZERO rate policy. However, the 25bps raise had little effect on bonds or the market in general, yet it Read more…

Fed Reliance

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I hope everyone had an excellent Thanksgiving and enjoyed their holiday shopping. The market has been moving in fits and starts. The data has certainly been mixed, from weak holiday sales and the recent better than expected Labor Report. However, nothing has been horrible and unbelievably good. It has been mediocre at best. The biggest Read more…

Easy Money

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While earnings have been significantly mixed; Walmart, IBM, Chipotle and others getting crushed and Google, Amazon, and others beating – we are seeing huge volatility. There is one common theme that is a little concern, is that the net forecasts and top-line revenue results are weak. Yet, the implied volatility is getting crushed and the Read more…

Fed Contradiction

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The market remains under volatile conditions, as if the recent FOMC meeting created more ambiguity than certainty. The Fed did not raise rates, but maybe they will in October or December (the next FOMC) meetings. The market didn’t rally as many expected when the Fed didn’t hike rates and instead sold off again. Last night Read more…

Perception Shift

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As expected the Fed did NOT raise rates, but the market reaction was unusual and unexpected. There are perhaps bigger problems. I think some of those problems reside in the Margin arena and I believe we will see MORE, not less, accommodative changes from both the Federal Reserve as well as margin rations in the Read more…

Sustainability

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The market roller coaster ride continues and will continue until we get to that FOMC meeting. The market, investors, the world needs certainty as to what the Fed will do and also set a tone of expectations going forward – rather than this we will see attitude that is “Data Dependent” which keeps us guessing Read more…

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