Minsky’s Moment

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The Economist in their last issue ran an excellent article about the “Minsky’s Moment”, the last time his name and theory were evoked by the Economist was in 2009 after the financial crisis. I can’t help wonder if the Economist’s timing is not fortuitous. April 2nd 2009 Economist “Minsky’s Moment” July 30th 2016 Economist “Minsky’s Read more…

Potential Volatility

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First I must apologize for my absence. I have been on the road show and opening new offices, certainly taking a heavy toll on my sleep and also this report. There is certainly a lot of potential volatility in the market between the US Elections, Puerto Rico’s upcoming July $2 billion default, BREXIT, Economic Data, Read more…

Quarter End

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The quarter end is traditionally a time when the financial world reports their returns, makes forecasts for the next quarter, and of course the unspoken game of “marking”, which my colleagues will not find my brute honesty humorous, but it is true nonetheless. It is also the time for the government to make their forecasts Read more…

Fed Rally!

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As expected if the Fed decided to halt rate hikes and take a more dovish stance, the dollar would weaken and the equity, bond, and commodity markets would rally. However, we must take a step back and look at the big picture as to whether this rally is based on solid economic fundamentals (strong earnings Read more…

Primaries and the Fed

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This week should be pivotal for the markets. We have another “Super Tuesday” that could be the decider for both the GOP and Democrat primaries, which will certainly drive some volatility (depending on who slings ahead). Yet this is more of a long-term market driven story that ultimately plays out in November. What will drive Read more…

Uncertainty?

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I was speaking with a well-respected leader in the financial community discussing the market. She made an astute observation; “We can deal with bad news and we can deal with good news, what we can’t deal with is uncertainty!” She is absolutely correct. One can position their investments for both good and bad economic and Read more…

NIRP, really?

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NIRP, Really? What is NIRP What is NIRP, quite simply it is the unimaginable just a short time ago. It is when the central bank takes rates negative. It sounds absurd and it is. During the height of the crisis, back in 2009-2010, as the Fed was figuring out what to do, they considered taking Read more…

Not all is Rosy

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What we had hoped would not come to pass is now becoming reality. Perhaps it was hope rather than math, that drove optimistic perception. I have a saying, which I probably don’t repeat enough; “You can choose to ignore the math, but you can’t avoid it!” We tend to ignore real economic data, math and Read more…

2016 Predictions

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It is the end of 2015 and we have been in for a wild ride, driven by Fed interventionism and uncertainty. The Fed raised rates to the upper end of their 0 – .25 years long ZERO rate policy. However, the 25bps raise had little effect on bonds or the market in general, yet it Read more…

Fed Reliance

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I hope everyone had an excellent Thanksgiving and enjoyed their holiday shopping. The market has been moving in fits and starts. The data has certainly been mixed, from weak holiday sales and the recent better than expected Labor Report. However, nothing has been horrible and unbelievably good. It has been mediocre at best. The biggest Read more…

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