Beware of Greeks bearing gifts

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This week China has been disrupting the markets with their currency moves. The moves themselves, relative to the change of other currencies, have not been that big. However, the idea and impact of even a small change in a pegged currency that has been strengthening against the dollar to suddenly be reversed shows how quickly Read more…

Putin’s Rhetoric

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As we hover and wait for either a break-out rally or a crack-down below support, the Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin are grabbing headlines. While the situation in the Ukraine may seem like it’s in some far off place, it does have a direct impact on the domestic financial markets, so we must pay Read more…

Waiting Game

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Leading indicator? Is it the Dow Jones and S&P 500 that have held supports and look like we might bounce higher OR is it the broader based Russell and tech heavy NDX that have broken below supports? The VIX has not been a good indicator of late for those searching for a sign of optimism Read more…

Breakout Rally?

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The Fed and geopolitical situations continue to be the daily volatility driver into the market. Yellen’s gaff in the Q&A session sent the market down sharply and yesterday the President stated that a military option is off the table with Ukraine, sending the market up sharply. All this shows how jittery and reliant the markets Read more…

A Lesson from Grandpa

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The market fell apart yesterday, but, lest we forget, things can certainly change on a dime. There was no single news story that drove panic into the market. Some of the media blamed data that came out of China, others blamed the Ukrainian situation, and others blamed Marc Faber who called for a correction. I Read more…

Don’t Poke the Bear!

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It looks like the rally has lost some steam. We should never expect anything to go straight up, so look for a slight contraction in the equity markets in the coming days. There is some support, so will this be a good time to buy? We have the FOMC meeting coming up (March 18-19) and Read more…

2014 Predictions Part I

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Making predictions is, at best, a game of educated guesses and, at worse, wishful thinking. One of the hardest things is to be objective. It is certainly far easier to take an ideological stance, ignore math, and draw conjecture that sits well with one’s views. It is far harder to make observations, do the math, Read more…

QE Party

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The market rallied and hit those fresh new highs we targeted yesterday. I personally find it amazing that the market had priced in a taper. The vast majority thought the Fed would taper as we saw bonds rallying (sending the yield lower) and gold rocketed higher, but the Fed blew a huge opportunity to taper. Read more…

Geopolitical Environment

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The market is heading into a storm of volatility as we are watching the clock tick down in Egypt. Meanwhile the clock is also ticking on Greece, who are running out of cash fast and HOPING for the next rounds of bailouts. Then there is Portugal where the Finance Minister and now the Foreign Minister Read more…

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