2017 Predictions

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To say that 2016 was a boring and predictive year is an understatement, probably the two biggest items impacting the economic fronts were the cantankerous election ending in a Trump win and the BREXIT sending ripples through Europe. But what should we expect in 2017? 2017 Predictions Year of the Dollar Courtesy of wikipedia While Read more…

Election and the Markets

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I appreciate the very “strong” feelings people have for the candidates and I am going to attempt to be as objective as I can when reviewing the candidates and how it may impact the economy and markets from my very humble opinion. There are certainly many other issues, all very important, but I thought I Read more…

ASSumptions

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Courtesy of wikipedia Oscar Wilde said, “When you assume, you make an ass out of u and me.” Which is probably one of the most astute observations of the human condition and I might add put in an eloquent, yet poignant way. The run-up and fall-out of the BREXIT has validated Wilde’s famous quote, much Read more…

BREXIT – YEAH!

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If you live in the states and are not in the financial markets or pay little attention to international news and politics, you are probably hearing for the first time this morning about BREXIT. No, it is not some new German healthy cereal, it is short for a British Exit from the Euro Zone. The Read more…

Potential Volatility

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First I must apologize for my absence. I have been on the road show and opening new offices, certainly taking a heavy toll on my sleep and also this report. There is certainly a lot of potential volatility in the market between the US Elections, Puerto Rico’s upcoming July $2 billion default, BREXIT, Economic Data, Read more…

Puerto Rico – an objective view.

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Today Puerto Rico defaults on their first sizable bond payment (approximately $400m). As I write this, I sit in the heart of Old San Juan and if I had a strong enough arm, I could hit the Governor’s mansion with a baseball. I was working yesterday (Sunday) at the office as the protesters took to Read more…

Quarter End

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The quarter end is traditionally a time when the financial world reports their returns, makes forecasts for the next quarter, and of course the unspoken game of “marking”, which my colleagues will not find my brute honesty humorous, but it is true nonetheless. It is also the time for the government to make their forecasts Read more…

Feel the Cold!

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The one thing the Democrats didn’t feel in IOWA was the Bern, just the cold. Here are the facts: • Iowa has 3.1m population, • 584,111 registered Democrat ACTIVE Voters • 612,112 registered Republican ACTIVE Voters • 726,819 registered Independent ACTIVE Voters • 30 Republican delegates • 44 Democrat delegates. I looked at the voting Read more…

New Keynesians

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Is the rally getting long in the tooth? The recent rally, much like the sell-off that preceded it were not based on economics, earnings, or even geo-political events – it fell squarely on the shoulders of the Fed’s interest rate decisions. New Keynesians? FOMC moves the Market The market sold off in August and then Read more…

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