Uncertainty?

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I was speaking with a well-respected leader in the financial community discussing the market. She made an astute observation; “We can deal with bad news and we can deal with good news, what we can’t deal with is uncertainty!” She is absolutely correct. One can position their investments for both good and bad economic and Read more…

NIRP, really?

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NIRP, Really? What is NIRP What is NIRP, quite simply it is the unimaginable just a short time ago. It is when the central bank takes rates negative. It sounds absurd and it is. During the height of the crisis, back in 2009-2010, as the Fed was figuring out what to do, they considered taking Read more…

Not all is Rosy

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What we had hoped would not come to pass is now becoming reality. Perhaps it was hope rather than math, that drove optimistic perception. I have a saying, which I probably don’t repeat enough; “You can choose to ignore the math, but you can’t avoid it!” We tend to ignore real economic data, math and Read more…

Got Jobs?

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The major indices broke supports and have visited some lows. Blame has been tossed around from North Korea’s supposed bomb test to Saudi Arabia’s relation with Iran. The boring reality is the flow of capital, which is controlled by interest rates, margin (leverage), and money supply. As the Fed Co-Chair mentioned, the Fed’s policy (QE Read more…

Market Sell-Off?

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As expected the market is coming under pressure after the New Year. The problems stem from the underlying weak economy, both domestic and abroad. The economy has never been as strong as some of the headline data would suggest, because of the Federal Reserve interventionist policies have artificially boosted the data. It was always the Read more…

2016 Predictions

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It is the end of 2015 and we have been in for a wild ride, driven by Fed interventionism and uncertainty. The Fed raised rates to the upper end of their 0 – .25 years long ZERO rate policy. However, the 25bps raise had little effect on bonds or the market in general, yet it Read more…

Europe offers breathing room?

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While I have been adamant that the Fed will NOT raise rates in December, one thing has changed my mind as it comes back to my CORE focus on the dollar and dis-inflationary pressure. We must remember at the end of the day it is the dollar and inflation/deflation that drives everything, even ultimately the Read more…

Fed Reliance

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I hope everyone had an excellent Thanksgiving and enjoyed their holiday shopping. The market has been moving in fits and starts. The data has certainly been mixed, from weak holiday sales and the recent better than expected Labor Report. However, nothing has been horrible and unbelievably good. It has been mediocre at best. The biggest Read more…

Lions of Rojava

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The news is focused on the horrific terrorist attacks in France and the expanding concerns about ISIS. Our own nation is still rather unclear and unsure what to do, we don’t have a plan. I am not sure if the President is concerned about his legacy (14 months left) or concerned about populism, but I Read more…

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