NIRP, really?

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NIRP, Really? What is NIRP What is NIRP, quite simply it is the unimaginable just a short time ago. It is when the central bank takes rates negative. It sounds absurd and it is. During the height of the crisis, back in 2009-2010, as the Fed was figuring out what to do, they considered taking Read more…

Not all is Rosy

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What we had hoped would not come to pass is now becoming reality. Perhaps it was hope rather than math, that drove optimistic perception. I have a saying, which I probably don’t repeat enough; “You can choose to ignore the math, but you can’t avoid it!” We tend to ignore real economic data, math and Read more…

Market Sell-Off?

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As expected the market is coming under pressure after the New Year. The problems stem from the underlying weak economy, both domestic and abroad. The economy has never been as strong as some of the headline data would suggest, because of the Federal Reserve interventionist policies have artificially boosted the data. It was always the Read more…

Europe offers breathing room?

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While I have been adamant that the Fed will NOT raise rates in December, one thing has changed my mind as it comes back to my CORE focus on the dollar and dis-inflationary pressure. We must remember at the end of the day it is the dollar and inflation/deflation that drives everything, even ultimately the Read more…

Lions of Rojava

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The news is focused on the horrific terrorist attacks in France and the expanding concerns about ISIS. Our own nation is still rather unclear and unsure what to do, we don’t have a plan. I am not sure if the President is concerned about his legacy (14 months left) or concerned about populism, but I Read more…

New Keynesians

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Is the rally getting long in the tooth? The recent rally, much like the sell-off that preceded it were not based on economics, earnings, or even geo-political events – it fell squarely on the shoulders of the Fed’s interest rate decisions. New Keynesians? FOMC moves the Market The market sold off in August and then Read more…

Semantics

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At 2pm Eastern Time, the Fed will release their FOMC statement with any changes to monetary policy (raise rates or not). The expectations at this point is that the Fed will NOT raise rates, so if they are not going to raise rates and/or make any changes to monetary policy, then what should we expect? Read more…

Easy Money

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While earnings have been significantly mixed; Walmart, IBM, Chipotle and others getting crushed and Google, Amazon, and others beating – we are seeing huge volatility. There is one common theme that is a little concern, is that the net forecasts and top-line revenue results are weak. Yet, the implied volatility is getting crushed and the Read more…

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