2017 Predictions

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To say that 2016 was a boring and predictive year is an understatement, probably the two biggest items impacting the economic fronts were the cantankerous election ending in a Trump win and the BREXIT sending ripples through Europe. But what should we expect in 2017? 2017 Predictions Year of the Dollar Courtesy of wikipedia While Read more…

Election and the Markets

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I appreciate the very “strong” feelings people have for the candidates and I am going to attempt to be as objective as I can when reviewing the candidates and how it may impact the economy and markets from my very humble opinion. There are certainly many other issues, all very important, but I thought I Read more…

Minsky’s Moment

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The Economist in their last issue ran an excellent article about the “Minsky’s Moment”, the last time his name and theory were evoked by the Economist was in 2009 after the financial crisis. I can’t help wonder if the Economist’s timing is not fortuitous. April 2nd 2009 Economist “Minsky’s Moment” July 30th 2016 Economist “Minsky’s Read more…

ASSumptions

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Courtesy of wikipedia Oscar Wilde said, “When you assume, you make an ass out of u and me.” Which is probably one of the most astute observations of the human condition and I might add put in an eloquent, yet poignant way. The run-up and fall-out of the BREXIT has validated Wilde’s famous quote, much Read more…

BREXIT – YEAH!

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If you live in the states and are not in the financial markets or pay little attention to international news and politics, you are probably hearing for the first time this morning about BREXIT. No, it is not some new German healthy cereal, it is short for a British Exit from the Euro Zone. The Read more…

Potential Volatility

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First I must apologize for my absence. I have been on the road show and opening new offices, certainly taking a heavy toll on my sleep and also this report. There is certainly a lot of potential volatility in the market between the US Elections, Puerto Rico’s upcoming July $2 billion default, BREXIT, Economic Data, Read more…

A Fed Game

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The confluence between the Fed and economic data will ultimately drive Fed monetary policy. It is important to remember that one must not cherry pick the data nor just look at the headline data. Certainly the Fed is delving into the numbers, because if economic headline data were the end-all be-all for setting monetary policy Read more…

Puerto Rico – an objective view.

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Today Puerto Rico defaults on their first sizable bond payment (approximately $400m). As I write this, I sit in the heart of Old San Juan and if I had a strong enough arm, I could hit the Governor’s mansion with a baseball. I was working yesterday (Sunday) at the office as the protesters took to Read more…

ECB NIRP!

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Central Bank Trifecta We are amidst three major Western central banks making statements and possible monetary policy changes. Their statements and decisions can drive volatility into the equity, bond, and currency markets. At one time they were all in unison, but we could see a divergence between the U.S. and her allies across the Pacific Read more…

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