Surprise Labor Report?

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The market has seen significant volatility since the BREXIT and the circus in the US, which we certainly can’t proudly call a democratic election, is laying a rather bleak blanket of uncertainty over the US economic future. The bounce off the lows to push back into the highs came just as violently as the sell-off. Read more…

Potential Volatility

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First I must apologize for my absence. I have been on the road show and opening new offices, certainly taking a heavy toll on my sleep and also this report. There is certainly a lot of potential volatility in the market between the US Elections, Puerto Rico’s upcoming July $2 billion default, BREXIT, Economic Data, Read more…

A Fed Game

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The confluence between the Fed and economic data will ultimately drive Fed monetary policy. It is important to remember that one must not cherry pick the data nor just look at the headline data. Certainly the Fed is delving into the numbers, because if economic headline data were the end-all be-all for setting monetary policy Read more…

Quarter End

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The quarter end is traditionally a time when the financial world reports their returns, makes forecasts for the next quarter, and of course the unspoken game of “marking”, which my colleagues will not find my brute honesty humorous, but it is true nonetheless. It is also the time for the government to make their forecasts Read more…

Jobs Victory?

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Fridays Labor Report showed strong growth in the job market, enough so that President Obama was able to take a victory lap. Yet if one peers behind the headline number curtain, we see that the type of jobs and demographic are not as robust as the headlines would suggest. Over the years we have seen Read more…

Labor Perception

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Has the market recovered from the beginning of the year sell off? What has changed to bring back confidence to the equity markets? Were we oversold? Is the U.S. economy stronger or weaker? What will the Fed do next (raise rates, pause, perhaps lower rates)? These are the questions swirling around the financial markets, and Read more…

Uncertainty?

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I was speaking with a well-respected leader in the financial community discussing the market. She made an astute observation; “We can deal with bad news and we can deal with good news, what we can’t deal with is uncertainty!” She is absolutely correct. One can position their investments for both good and bad economic and Read more…

NIRP, really?

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NIRP, Really? What is NIRP What is NIRP, quite simply it is the unimaginable just a short time ago. It is when the central bank takes rates negative. It sounds absurd and it is. During the height of the crisis, back in 2009-2010, as the Fed was figuring out what to do, they considered taking Read more…

Not all is Rosy

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What we had hoped would not come to pass is now becoming reality. Perhaps it was hope rather than math, that drove optimistic perception. I have a saying, which I probably don’t repeat enough; “You can choose to ignore the math, but you can’t avoid it!” We tend to ignore real economic data, math and Read more…

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