Feel the Cold!

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The one thing the Democrats didn’t feel in IOWA was the Bern, just the cold. Here are the facts: • Iowa has 3.1m population, • 584,111 registered Democrat ACTIVE Voters • 612,112 registered Republican ACTIVE Voters • 726,819 registered Independent ACTIVE Voters • 30 Republican delegates • 44 Democrat delegates. I looked at the voting Read more…

Not all is Rosy

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What we had hoped would not come to pass is now becoming reality. Perhaps it was hope rather than math, that drove optimistic perception. I have a saying, which I probably don’t repeat enough; “You can choose to ignore the math, but you can’t avoid it!” We tend to ignore real economic data, math and Read more…

2016 Predictions

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It is the end of 2015 and we have been in for a wild ride, driven by Fed interventionism and uncertainty. The Fed raised rates to the upper end of their 0 – .25 years long ZERO rate policy. However, the 25bps raise had little effect on bonds or the market in general, yet it Read more…

Reverse Repos Ramping

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The Federal Reserve Reverse Repos have been getting a lot of attention in the economic and financial wonky blogosphere, as we have seen the volume spike. Should we be concerned? Is this a sign they are about to raise rates and use the reverse repos as an alternative way to control rates? Is there possibly Read more…

Sustainability

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The market roller coaster ride continues and will continue until we get to that FOMC meeting. The market, investors, the world needs certainty as to what the Fed will do and also set a tone of expectations going forward – rather than this we will see attitude that is “Data Dependent” which keeps us guessing Read more…

Oil Story

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Perhaps this week the market can take a rest from the volatility that circles our world. What is interesting is the market (fueled by our media) acts surprised by these volatile events, when in reality they are all fairly well known and we should have a level of probable expectations. This is what concerns me Read more…

China’s Yuan

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The market hit some of those intraday support lows, but what was important was how we closed. We saw volume pick up and a strong rally to get above those key levels and that is a hopeful sign that we could see continued support in here. It is not over yet and I suspect we Read more…

Energy Plan?

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I thought I would deviate from typical economics and market news today. I want to make a point that perception and optics can change policy and that policy can change the economic and financial landscape. Energy Plan Yesterday the President unveiled his new energy plan. It is an aggressive policy to cut carbon and a Read more…

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