2017 Predictions

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To say that 2016 was a boring and predictive year is an understatement, probably the two biggest items impacting the economic fronts were the cantankerous election ending in a Trump win and the BREXIT sending ripples through Europe. But what should we expect in 2017? 2017 Predictions Year of the Dollar Courtesy of wikipedia While Read more…

Election and the Markets

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I appreciate the very “strong” feelings people have for the candidates and I am going to attempt to be as objective as I can when reviewing the candidates and how it may impact the economy and markets from my very humble opinion. There are certainly many other issues, all very important, but I thought I Read more…

Minsky’s Moment

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The Economist in their last issue ran an excellent article about the “Minsky’s Moment”, the last time his name and theory were evoked by the Economist was in 2009 after the financial crisis. I can’t help wonder if the Economist’s timing is not fortuitous. April 2nd 2009 Economist “Minsky’s Moment” July 30th 2016 Economist “Minsky’s Read more…

VIX

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The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices broke their resistance levels over a week ago and continue to rocket higher. There hasn’t been any news or economic data to support such a move, actually the last 3-6 months have seen rather stagnant data. The only major jolt to the market recently was the run-up, sell-off, Read more…

Surprise Labor Report?

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The market has seen significant volatility since the BREXIT and the circus in the US, which we certainly can’t proudly call a democratic election, is laying a rather bleak blanket of uncertainty over the US economic future. The bounce off the lows to push back into the highs came just as violently as the sell-off. Read more…

ASSumptions

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Courtesy of wikipedia Oscar Wilde said, “When you assume, you make an ass out of u and me.” Which is probably one of the most astute observations of the human condition and I might add put in an eloquent, yet poignant way. The run-up and fall-out of the BREXIT has validated Wilde’s famous quote, much Read more…

BREXIT – YEAH!

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If you live in the states and are not in the financial markets or pay little attention to international news and politics, you are probably hearing for the first time this morning about BREXIT. No, it is not some new German healthy cereal, it is short for a British Exit from the Euro Zone. The Read more…

Potential Volatility

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First I must apologize for my absence. I have been on the road show and opening new offices, certainly taking a heavy toll on my sleep and also this report. There is certainly a lot of potential volatility in the market between the US Elections, Puerto Rico’s upcoming July $2 billion default, BREXIT, Economic Data, Read more…

A Fed Game

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The confluence between the Fed and economic data will ultimately drive Fed monetary policy. It is important to remember that one must not cherry pick the data nor just look at the headline data. Certainly the Fed is delving into the numbers, because if economic headline data were the end-all be-all for setting monetary policy Read more…

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