Semantics

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At 2pm Eastern Time, the Fed will release their FOMC statement with any changes to monetary policy (raise rates or not). The expectations at this point is that the Fed will NOT raise rates, so if they are not going to raise rates and/or make any changes to monetary policy, then what should we expect? Read more…

Easy Money

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While earnings have been significantly mixed; Walmart, IBM, Chipotle and others getting crushed and Google, Amazon, and others beating – we are seeing huge volatility. There is one common theme that is a little concern, is that the net forecasts and top-line revenue results are weak. Yet, the implied volatility is getting crushed and the Read more…

Earnings Effect

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The earnings season is telling not just for the fundamental views of growth and sales, but also how it may weight on the Fed’s rate hike decision for the next two meetings. If the recent jobs report coming in far weaker than expected, combined with the disinflation (contracting inflation) should be reason enough that the Read more…

NO RATE HIKES

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The stars are aligning for the Fed. They will NOT HIKE RATES in 2015. NO RATE HIKES The Fed has clearly said they are “data dependent”, so if we look at the data it is telling us they are NOT going to raise rates. Remember they have a “Dual Mandate” which is maintaining a strong Read more…

Reverse Repos Ramping

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The Federal Reserve Reverse Repos have been getting a lot of attention in the economic and financial wonky blogosphere, as we have seen the volume spike. Should we be concerned? Is this a sign they are about to raise rates and use the reverse repos as an alternative way to control rates? Is there possibly Read more…

BANK WEEK

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It’s earnings season and while this looks to be the first earnings quarter in which S&P 500 has contracted (no growth) since 2009, there are sectors that we need to pay especially close interest to that can drive market activity. This is bank week as the many of the big name banks report. The banking Read more…

Shrinking Stock Market

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The markets have rallied off the lows after the Labor Report, realizing there is little chance the Fed will hike rates in October. One colleague said it was a brilliant strategy, the Fed talks tough and they will raise rates, full well knowing that the Labor Report was going to be weak. Then they can Read more…

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