ADP setting expectations

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The market seems to have found a support area. Yesterday we hung around the supports, waiting for the next shoe to drop – either to rally or to see a continued sell off. It’s a waiting game for next FOMC meeting in October and as we wait – the market is coiled to move and Read more…

Shoe Shine Boy?

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The market fell again and we are now in precarious levels. We are roughly back to the previous lows in which we bounced from, only to revisit them a few short weeks later. The pattern we are experiencing is frequently referred to as a “Dead Cat Bounce”, in which we sold off then bounced, only Read more…

Crazy September

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The stock market sold off heading into the high expectations of a rate hike in September. Then it bounced, but sold off when the FED did NOT hike rates. Yellen came out in a speech, days later and said they will hike rates, in what seemed some strange hope that would lift the markets, but Read more…

Fed Contradiction

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The market remains under volatile conditions, as if the recent FOMC meeting created more ambiguity than certainty. The Fed did not raise rates, but maybe they will in October or December (the next FOMC) meetings. The market didn’t rally as many expected when the Fed didn’t hike rates and instead sold off again. Last night Read more…

Fed Policy NOT working

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The FED did NOT raise rates the market should have rallied. What happened, why are we declining? Is the message from the Fed that the economy, whether globally or locally, really that bad? What about all the great economic data; U3 unemployment at 5.1%, GDP growing above 2% and looking better, inflation in check? I Read more…

Perception Shift

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As expected the Fed did NOT raise rates, but the market reaction was unusual and unexpected. There are perhaps bigger problems. I think some of those problems reside in the Margin arena and I believe we will see MORE, not less, accommodative changes from both the Federal Reserve as well as margin rations in the Read more…

Markets predict NO RATE HIKE

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Will the Fed Raise Rates? That is the question that is swirling around and there is much debate as to whether they would now, October, or December or not even at all. There is no consensus and the arguments range from should they to would they. However, there is a silent opinion as to whether Read more…

Message Craft

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It’s FOMC week and the market is watching and waiting. The volatility of the probability of a rate hike has been as volatile as the market. It went from a 70% expectation, to a 40% expectation, then back up and down. An economic data point, global news, or a market move and everyone would change Read more…

Labor Report

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This morning will set the tone for the market heading into the September FOMC meeting. The Jobs report, if it comes out at either extreme will drive perception of whether or not the Fed will hike rates. Expect volatility at the opening, until this settles out. Labor Report This is probably one of the most Read more…

First Look at Jobs

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With the market volatility and the Fed FOMC meeting looming, the question or perhaps threat of a rate hike is a dark shadow over the equity markets. The Jackson Hole Summit, without Yellen, only offered more ambiguity. The last big factor prior to the FOMC meeting is the monthly employment report to be released this Read more…