VIX

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The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices broke their resistance levels over a week ago and continue to rocket higher. There hasn’t been any news or economic data to support such a move, actually the last 3-6 months have seen rather stagnant data. The only major jolt to the market recently was the run-up, sell-off, Read more…

Surprise Labor Report?

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The market has seen significant volatility since the BREXIT and the circus in the US, which we certainly can’t proudly call a democratic election, is laying a rather bleak blanket of uncertainty over the US economic future. The bounce off the lows to push back into the highs came just as violently as the sell-off. Read more…

ASSumptions

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Courtesy of wikipedia Oscar Wilde said, “When you assume, you make an ass out of u and me.” Which is probably one of the most astute observations of the human condition and I might add put in an eloquent, yet poignant way. The run-up and fall-out of the BREXIT has validated Wilde’s famous quote, much Read more…

BREXIT – YEAH!

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If you live in the states and are not in the financial markets or pay little attention to international news and politics, you are probably hearing for the first time this morning about BREXIT. No, it is not some new German healthy cereal, it is short for a British Exit from the Euro Zone. The Read more…

Potential Volatility

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First I must apologize for my absence. I have been on the road show and opening new offices, certainly taking a heavy toll on my sleep and also this report. There is certainly a lot of potential volatility in the market between the US Elections, Puerto Rico’s upcoming July $2 billion default, BREXIT, Economic Data, Read more…

A Fed Game

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The confluence between the Fed and economic data will ultimately drive Fed monetary policy. It is important to remember that one must not cherry pick the data nor just look at the headline data. Certainly the Fed is delving into the numbers, because if economic headline data were the end-all be-all for setting monetary policy Read more…

Puerto Rico – an objective view.

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Today Puerto Rico defaults on their first sizable bond payment (approximately $400m). As I write this, I sit in the heart of Old San Juan and if I had a strong enough arm, I could hit the Governor’s mansion with a baseball. I was working yesterday (Sunday) at the office as the protesters took to Read more…

Earnings Season

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Earnings season kicks off this week and we will start getting a glimpse of how we fared in Q1. While the expectations are for a weaker quarter, my real concerns are top-line revenue and sales. Of all the recent economic reports and data out there, there is one item that sticks out – China’s significant Read more…

Quarter End

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The quarter end is traditionally a time when the financial world reports their returns, makes forecasts for the next quarter, and of course the unspoken game of “marking”, which my colleagues will not find my brute honesty humorous, but it is true nonetheless. It is also the time for the government to make their forecasts Read more…

Fed Rally!

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As expected if the Fed decided to halt rate hikes and take a more dovish stance, the dollar would weaken and the equity, bond, and commodity markets would rally. However, we must take a step back and look at the big picture as to whether this rally is based on solid economic fundamentals (strong earnings Read more…

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