30 days till Xmas

Posted on: by .

30 days till Xmas is when the market starts tracking closely the foot traffic, initial holiday sales, per ticket sales, same store sales, and every matrix you can think of. Black Friday is coming quickly and marks the day when retail businesses move into the “Black” (positive profits) for the year. 30 days till Xmas Read more…

Currency War Rally!

Posted on: by .

The market was waiting for something to bust it out of this consolidation zone and it got it – another massive world-wide central bank rally. This time it is coming from China and the Euro Zone. Again, the dollar moves higher and assets classes are inflated. Ironically gold is rallying, even with the dollar rally Read more…

Fed Minutes?

Posted on: by .

The Fed minutes gave us a look inside the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and how the statement was crafted. Reading the minutes there were far more real concerns about the economy and inflation, which didn’t translate into the FOMC official statement. In some silly way it seems the FOMC meeting is more Read more…

Blind Leading the Blind

Posted on: by .

One of the ongoing disconnects is equating the financial markets with the health of the economy. While there are some parallels, we need to remember that correlation does not prove causation. The market has rallied strongly, but how much of the rally is based on fundamentals of the domestic economy vs. trillions in new money Read more…

Consumer Spending?

Posted on: by .

The name of the game is spend spend SPEND! That is what is going to be driving earnings and expectations this holiday season. Yesterday we pointed to the disconnect between those that can spend (which is at the high-end retailers) and the larger portion of the population that is still struggling with jobs, wages, and Read more…

Consumer Status

Posted on: by .

It will be a “highly promotional holiday season” stated Wal-Mart upon their release of earnings. The holidays will be a battle for consumer market share and some of that extra money not going into the gas tank. The competition seems to be moving downstream to the discount retailers as this is where the bulk of Read more…

Confluence of Inflation and Margins

Posted on: by .

Holiday season is underway and you can’t turn on the TV or open a newspaper/magazine without being blasted with holiday sales promotions. This is the time of year where retailers are playing catch-up and to drive home the revenue to boost the full year profits. The good news for retailers is the drop in gas Read more…

October Labor Report

Posted on: by .

The October Labor Report we have all been waiting for is finally going to be released this morning. It has been one of the significant data points that have driven both market volatility and justification for Fed monetary policy. It also comes on the tail-end of some government driven volatility; namely the recent FOMC meeting Read more…

Petrodollar Battle

Posted on: by .

The currency war is heating up and now the petrodollar is coming under fire and we could be facing the catalyst in which we see a full disconnect. The fundamental fabric that holds our currencies, commodity prices, and interest rates is pulling apart by individual threads. I am not sure which thread, if pulled hard Read more…

Got Jobs?

Posted on: by .

The elections are over and now we can move on, hopefully. I did see some interesting data on the history of the S&P 500 after mid-term elections, since 1946 the S&P 500 has rallied after every mid-term regardless of party. The pre-market futures seem to be following that trend. The media will most likely refocus Read more…

    Older Posts >>