Hawkish or Dovish?

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Was the FOMC statement Hawkish or Dovish? I think the market is as puzzled as some economists, even CNBC economics reporter Steve Liesman (Keynesian) was puzzled. The market reaction was muted for the most part and I think needs to adsorb what was said and then also look what has changed (if anything). For the Read more…

2 o’clock and all’s well!

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Today is a holding pattern as we wait for the Fed. The market had a strong sell-off recently, the Fed paraded out their Doves with hints of prolonging ZIRP and even QE, the market rallied. Yet, I am not sure if the market is fully convinced that the Fed will remain Dovish and that has Read more…

FOMC Tea Leaves

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While the market has already strongly reacted to Fed FOMC expectations, the media is slowly catching on. We will likely see more attention turn towards some recent and current economic data to justify the FOMC statement. The geopolitical concerns, Ebola, ISIS, Hong-Kong, and the rest is going to take a back seat to economic data Read more…

Dollar and Oil Prices

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Earnings, oil prices, strong dollar coupled with ECB and BOJ accommodation are just the economic volatility in the market. Then we have ISIS, Ebola, Ukraine, and Hong-Kong vs. China, which has not really impacted market fundamentals or global trade. Yet with all this uncertainty and potential volatility in the market, the one factor that can Read more…

Ford Earnings Example

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Volatility has NOT left the market and we should expect it to remain until the FOMC meeting clarifies their monetary policy and forward guidance. Until then the market and media have turned their attention back to earnings, geopolitical volatility (Hong Kong / China / ISIS), and Ebola. These events are certainly causing jitters in the Read more…

Fed Stars Align

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The market has made a healthy bounce from the recent sell-off, but I suspect we will have a little reprieve at this point. We need to catch a breath from this roller-coaster ride and we have move back up into previous support ranges so we could be facing some resistance at these levels. The FOMC Read more…

Dollar Strength

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The market is bouncing off the lows and the volatility (premiums) is mellowing again. The Fed officials were on the parade last week; hinting, implying, commenting on future monetary policy. Two Fed officials even suggested halting the taper and extending QE. I believe those soothing words have certainly helped calm the market and quieted the Read more…

Fed’s True Colors

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The Russell remains one of the best indicators of general market order-flow. I believe coupled with the bond market has been the best indicator of future Fed monetary policy. The bond market rallied, sending rates below 2.2%, that was the first sign the Fed was not going to raise rates or become Hawkish. Earlier this Read more…

Don’t concentrate on the finger!

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Market crashing? Time to panic? As expected there is certainly significant volatility and even massive intra-day volatility. However, we knew or should have known to expect this. We only had to look at the end of QE1 and QE2 to see how the market fell into spastic volatility and selling pressure. We have also tested Read more…

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