A Fed Game

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The confluence between the Fed and economic data will ultimately drive Fed monetary policy. It is important to remember that one must not cherry pick the data nor just look at the headline data. Certainly the Fed is delving into the numbers, because if economic headline data were the end-all be-all for setting monetary policy Read more…

Puerto Rico – an objective view.

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Today Puerto Rico defaults on their first sizable bond payment (approximately $400m). As I write this, I sit in the heart of Old San Juan and if I had a strong enough arm, I could hit the Governor’s mansion with a baseball. I was working yesterday (Sunday) at the office as the protesters took to Read more…

Earnings Season

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Earnings season kicks off this week and we will start getting a glimpse of how we fared in Q1. While the expectations are for a weaker quarter, my real concerns are top-line revenue and sales. Of all the recent economic reports and data out there, there is one item that sticks out – China’s significant Read more…

Quarter End

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The quarter end is traditionally a time when the financial world reports their returns, makes forecasts for the next quarter, and of course the unspoken game of “marking”, which my colleagues will not find my brute honesty humorous, but it is true nonetheless. It is also the time for the government to make their forecasts Read more…

Fed Rally!

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As expected if the Fed decided to halt rate hikes and take a more dovish stance, the dollar would weaken and the equity, bond, and commodity markets would rally. However, we must take a step back and look at the big picture as to whether this rally is based on solid economic fundamentals (strong earnings Read more…

Primaries and the Fed

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This week should be pivotal for the markets. We have another “Super Tuesday” that could be the decider for both the GOP and Democrat primaries, which will certainly drive some volatility (depending on who slings ahead). Yet this is more of a long-term market driven story that ultimately plays out in November. What will drive Read more…

ECB NIRP!

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Central Bank Trifecta We are amidst three major Western central banks making statements and possible monetary policy changes. Their statements and decisions can drive volatility into the equity, bond, and currency markets. At one time they were all in unison, but we could see a divergence between the U.S. and her allies across the Pacific Read more…

Jobs Victory?

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Fridays Labor Report showed strong growth in the job market, enough so that President Obama was able to take a victory lap. Yet if one peers behind the headline number curtain, we see that the type of jobs and demographic are not as robust as the headlines would suggest. Over the years we have seen Read more…

Labor Perception

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Has the market recovered from the beginning of the year sell off? What has changed to bring back confidence to the equity markets? Were we oversold? Is the U.S. economy stronger or weaker? What will the Fed do next (raise rates, pause, perhaps lower rates)? These are the questions swirling around the financial markets, and Read more…

Uncertainty?

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I was speaking with a well-respected leader in the financial community discussing the market. She made an astute observation; “We can deal with bad news and we can deal with good news, what we can’t deal with is uncertainty!” She is absolutely correct. One can position their investments for both good and bad economic and Read more…

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